Latest developments in EVs, fusion energy, quantum computing and space

Sir Peter Beck, CEO, Rocket Lab

Maria Zuber, Presidential Advisor for Science and Technology Policy & E.A. Griswold Professor of Geophysics at MIT

Space exploration, fusion energy, quantum computing, and autonomous and electric vehicles were among the high-potential emerging technologies discussed at Bank of America’s Breakthrough Technology Dialogue in Goodwood, UK, in July. The intent of the event was to see not just how far cutting-edge technologies have come, but to understand how much farther we need to go before some deliver practical benefits and returns on investment.

When it comes to road transportation, electric vehicles are becoming more and more mainstream. Nearly one in five cars sold in 2023 was fully electric or hybrid.¹ Yet BofA Global Research has flagged a cooling in appetite for electric vehicles (EVs), particularly among older buyers. Is the EV revolution running out of charge?

The view of industry veterans gathered at Goodwood was that this was not the case. They noted the features, capabilities and efficiencies of electric vehicles were continuing to improve. Some also pointed out that legacy automakers did not necessarily need to worry about being undercut by newer all-electric brands, since heritage still matters, and emotions often factor heavily into vehicle buying decisions.

While electric cars seem here to stay, there was less consensus around when they would be able to drive themselves for the mass market. The Bank of America Institute links autonomous vehicles to the field of robotics, and their progress to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI).²

This is a more challenging technological hurdle than electrification, but in the view of many industry insiders it is a more exciting one, and could begin to show results over the next decade.

Electric aircraft are in more experimental territory. One guest seeking to change that was Kyle Clark, founder and CEO of electric aerospace company BETA Technologies.

A key advantage of electric airplanes, he argued, was their simplicity, and thus their reliability, demonstrated he said by recent BETA Technologies trials with the U.S. Air Force. The performance of BETA Technologies’ planes has also impressed Amazon and UPS, who have invested in the company and are planning to use them in logistics operations.

BETA Technologies’ state of the art factory in Vermont is itself a testament to the United States’ continued capacity for innovation in hardware.

Clark said. According to the CEO, passenger flights in electric planes could be common in the next few years. 

An even farther-reaching aspect of aviation discussed at the Breakthrough Technology Dialogue was spaceflight. "We’re witnessing the real-time democratisation of space," said Sir Peter Beck, CEO of Rocket Lab, noting the growing role of the private sector in a sphere once dominated by national governments.

Bank of America forecasts that the space economy will exceed $1 trillion (USD) by 2030, with growth of 11% per annum.³ SpaceX, one of the leaders of commercialised spaceflight, operates space transport services to the International Space Station for cargo and astronauts and was cited by delegates at Goodwood as proof that it is possible to operate successfully in the space industry as a private company.

Communications is another area where companies like Starlink are leveraging space for commercial purposes, employing satellites to make massive progress in bringing connectivity to less accessible parts of the world. Eventually, even more value could be tapped from space’s vast mineral resources, though delegates agreed it would take time for mining in space to be commercially or scientifically viable, given the difficulties and costs involved.

The enormous distances of space remain another constraint. Humanity continues to search for power sources that can propel spacecraft across those distances and provide cheap and clean power on Earth. Nuclear fusion is a field that has recently witnessed some landmarks towards net energy gain – at least in laboratory conditions.

To reach this stage has taken astonishing feats of engineering, but more will be required if this green and near-limitless source of power is to be secured and harnessed for homes and cities, according to Dr. Kim Budil, director of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Budil explained to the audience the nature of the prize.

Yet despite its far-reaching implications, fusion power has attracted relatively little private sector investment, she said – a situation that will have to change if the technology is to flourish in future.

Computers that are powerful enough to model a fusion reactor could significantly boost the potential for breakthroughs.⁴ Quantum computers use the unique properties of some of the very tiniest particles to radically scale computational power, with huge implications for key technologies such as digital encryption.

The Breakthrough Technology Dialogue saw an expert discussion of the drivers behind investment in quantum computing, with leaders in the field explaining that it will only truly arrive when today’s small experimental quantum computers are replaced by utility scale units.

Currently governments, aware of the national security implications of such powerful computers, are the main players in the sector, but an ecosystem of private companies is forming around state initiatives and exploring the potential in areas like risk simulation and data analytics.

Some of these advances may be just around the corner, while others remain a distant prospect – but the conversations at the Breakthrough Technology Dialogue highlighted that all are increasingly interconnected. Each is potentially transformative in terms of enabling a greener, more information-rich or energy-efficient future economy. Any hard-fought advance in one technology could prove the key to unlocking the others, unleashing technological change and value creation that brings innovation into the mainstream. 

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¹International Energy Agency: Trends in Electric Cars, 2024

² Bank of America Institute: Next Gen Tech: Robots, 2024

³ Bank of America Institute: The New Space Era: Expansion of the Space Economy, 2023

⁴ Culham Centre for Fusion Energy: Supercomputing, AI and the Industrial Metaverse essential for UK fusion energy powerplant development, 2023