Must Read Research

Also featuring commentary from Global Economic Weekly

June 23, 2024

Candace Browning

Candace Browning, Head of BofA Global Research

Heat waves can even make markets sizzle. This week we discuss which data infrastructure providers are blazing a trail.

 

The median size of datasets required to train AI models increased from 5.9 million datapoints in 2010 to 750 billion in 2023.

 

As demand rises for AI-enabled offerings, companies are prioritizing tools to integrate, store, and process data. BofA’s Software team estimates that the data infrastructure industry (e.g., data warehouses, data lakes, unstructured databases, etc.) is a $96 billion market that could reach $153 billion in 2028. The team’s proprietary survey revealed that data infrastructure is 35% of total IT spending with budgets expected to grow 9% over the next 12 months. Hyperscalers including mega-cap tech are among the top recipients of dollars and in-turn, those companies spend big on hardware. Senior Internet Analyst Justin Post expects server and equipment capex for mega-cap internet companies to rise 43%y/y (year over year) in 2024, to represent $27 billion of the $37 billion y/y total capex growth. Despite the spending surge, Justin thinks these companies will keep free cash flow margins stable at 22%y/y before increasing in 2025.

 

Must Read Research will return July 8th. Happy Independence Day. 

Featuring Commentary from Global Economics Weekly

Claudio Irigoyen

Claudio Irigoyen, Head of Global Economics, BofA Global Research

Global Letter: From growth divergence to policy decoupling

 

Global Letter: From growth divergence to policy decoupling

Our Global Economics team expects global growth to remain resilient and inflation to continue declining gradually. But growth, inflation and monetary policy divergence will persist across regions. Relative to our year-ahead report, we expect 1) higher global growth in 2024-25; 2) stronger U.S. growth and slower disinflation delaying Fed cuts; 3) a slight delay in the acceleration of ECB cuts; 4) a sequential deceleration in China in 2024, with a gradual recovery in 2025; 5) faster BoJ (Bank of Japan) policy normalization, 6) stickier inflation and slower cuts in EM (emerging markets).

 

United States: Still sticking the landing

 

The U.S. economy is cooling, but not cool. U.S. outperformance is driven by positive supply shocks and elevated labor demand. We expect the U.S. to avoid a hard landing through the end of 2026. We expect the Fed to ease in December. The main risk, sticky inflation.

 

Euro Area: Slightly delayed ECB acceleration

 

We still expect a mild sequential recovery, with 0.6% growth this year, 1.1% in 2025, and 1.3% in 2026. Inflation likely at target in early 2025. ECB: 75bp (basis point) of cuts in 2024, 125bp in 2025. Acceleration to every meeting from March 2025. Below 2% in 2026.

 

China: Growth momentum slowed after 1Q growth beat

 

Sequential growth is likely to soften without further stimulus. Consumption remains subdued as the property market still represents a source of risk. We expect growth at 5.0% and 4.7% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Inflation to pick up in 2H24.

 

Japan: Waiting for the tide to turn

 

Growth should rebound in FY24 as domestic demand recovers, but shrinking labor supply poses a speed limit. With inflation sticky, BoJ will continue with gradual normalization.

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