Must Read Research
Also featuring commentary from our economists
December 14, 2025
Candace Browning, Head of BofA Global Research
1. 2025 saw a boom in AI capex by tech giants to build the data center infrastructure needed for AI. Which tech executive in 2025 reportedly said "I am willing to go bankrupt rather than lose this race" with regard to AI?
a. Jensen Huang
b. Larry Page
c. Elon Musk
d. Mark Zuckerberg
2. Trade policy was a big global focus in 2025 as U.S. tariff rates rose to their highest level since the Great Depression. At one point this year, the U.S. imposed a tariff rate of 145% on which trading partner?
a. China
b. Switzerland
c. Brazil
d. India
e. Canada
3. President Trump signed 217 executive orders in the first 11 months of his 2nd term of office, a pace matched by which of the following U.S. presidents in the past century?
a. Ronald Reagan
b. Richard Nixon
c. Joseph Biden
d. Franklin D. Roosevelt
e. Gerald Ford
4. Which of the following countries was President Trump referring to when he said, "We need _________. And the world needs us to have _________"?
a. Venezuela
b. Greenland
c. Canada
d. Ukraine
5. The U.S. government spent $7.1tn in the past 12 months. Approximately, how many years would it take you to spend $7.1tn if you spent $100 every second of every day?
a. 300 years
b. 1,300 years
c. 2,300 years
d. 3,300 years
6. Interest payments on U.S. government debt in the past 12 months amounted to approximately how much per every citizen in the USA?
a. $500
b. $1,500
c. $2,500
d. $3,500
7. The U.S. labor market started to show signs of slowing in 2025, led by a rise in youth unemployment. How many 20-24 year olds in the U.S. are currently unemployed?
a. 1 million
b. 1.5 million
c. 2 million
d. 2.5 million
8. The K-shape economy describing the growing gap between the consumption of the rich & poor was all the rage in 2025. By how much has the U.S. equity market boosted U.S. household wealth in 2025?
a. $5 trillion
b. $7 trillion
c. $9 trillion
d. $11 trillion
9. In U.S. politics the Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani won the New York City mayoral election in November. What percent of people under the age of 30 voted for him?
a. 48%
b. 58%
c. 68%
d. 78%
10. The next U.S. midterm election will occur next November 3rd. In the 16 elections since 1962 what has been the average S&P500 price performance in the 12 months leading up to the midterm election?
a. Negative
b. Flat
c. +5%
d. +10%
e. +15%
11. Based on current probability data (Kalshi/Polymarket), which of the following is the most likely Democratic ticket (President & Vice President) in the U.S., 2028 presidential election?
a. Gavin Newsom & Pete Buttigieg
b. Kamala Harris & Pete Buttigieg
c. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez & Zohran Mamdani
d. Gavin Newsom & Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
e. Kamala Harris & Tim Walz
12. Global politics have turned more populist in the 2020s. In the 43 national elections in the past 18 months, how many incumbent presidents and/or majority parties were voted out of office?
a. 12
b. 18
c. 24
d. 32
13. The past 2 years have been characterized by big monetary easing. There have been 316 global central bank rate cuts in the past 24 months, a pace that exceeds the 24 months after which of the following crises?
a. The burst of the Dotcom bubble (Mar 2000)
b. The bankruptcy of Lehman & the Global Financial Crisis (Oct 2008)
c. The start of Covid-19 pandemic (Mar 2020)
d. All of the above
14. The pace of global rate cuts is expected to slow in 2026. Which of the following two central banks are expected to raise interest rates in 2026?
a. Bank of Japan
b. Bank of England
c. Swiss National Bank
d. Reserve Bank of Australia
e. European Central Bank
15. Turning to the price action on Wall St…which of the following has been the best performing global equity sector in the past 3 years?
a. U.S. tech
b. Japanese banks
c. China tech
d. European banks
16. If the S&P 500 returns more than 10% in 2026, it would be the fourth consecutive year of double-digit returns, a streak seen how many times in the past 100 years?
a. Once
b. Twice
c. Three times
d. Four times
17. And if the price of gold rises more than 10% in 2026, it would also be the fourth consecutive year of double-digit returns, a streak seen how many times in the past 100 years?
a. Once
b. Twice
c. Three times
d. Four times
18. In 2022, one ounce of gold could buy 15 barrels of oil. How many barrels of oil could an ounce of gold buy today?
a. 40
b. 50
c. 60
d. 70
19. Which of the following is the best performing currency in 2025 versus the U.S. dollar?
a. Swiss Franc
b. Mexican Peso
c. Russian Ruble
d. Israeli Shekel
e. Swedish Krona
20. And in the bond market, which of the following did not happen in 2025?
a. Italian government bond yields fell below French yields
b. Chinese government bond yields fell below Japanese yields
c. U.S. High Yield corporate bond spreads fell to a record low
d. U.S. Investment Grade tech bonds spreads fell to the lowest since 1997
e. Argentina issued a dollar bond for the first time in 8 years
21. Meme-based coins were big news again in 2025 with the launch of $Trump coin in January. There were 121 meme coins in 2021. By how many times has the number of meme coins increased since 2021?
a. 10x
b. 20x
c. 30x
d. 40x
22. U.S. equities accounted for 72% of all inflows to global equity funds in 2024. What was the figure in 2025?
a. 45%
b. 55%
c. 65%
d. 75%
Answer Key
1. b
2. a
3. d
4. b
5. c
6. d
7. b
8. c
9. d
10. a
11. d
12. d
13. d
14. a & d
15. b
16. c
17. b
18. d
19. c
20. c
21. d
22. a
Claudio Irigoyen, Head of Global Economics, BofA Global Research
QE or not QE? that is not the question
The Fed cut 25bp as widely expected, failed to deliver a decisively hawkish message and moved forward with "reserve management" purchases of T. Bills to make sure there is no liquidity squeeze in the near term. There is debate in the market on whether this is a quasi-QE (Quantitative Easing) type of policy. That is not the relevant question. The important point here is that the Fed will keep liquidity pipes open, because directly or indirectly someone has to finance the record fiscal deficit. With so much incoming data until January, we expect the Fed to remain data dependent but we keep our core view that the Fed will not cut again under Powell.
Analyst survey suggests productivity gains and more near-shoring ahead
Heading into next year, we conducted our 3rd global survey of fundamental analysts. They expect higher prices and margins in the U.S. and APAC ex-China, but limited price pressure in Europe. AI-driven productivity gains and investment will continue with focus in the U.S. and Asia. Geopolitical dynamics will be a driving force behind reshoring and near-shoring activity, as companies keep relocating their supply chains away from China.
