2025 Year Ahead Outlook
What’s ahead in 2025? Potential shifts in policy and improving productivity will be the key drivers of stocks and economies. Watch as our strategists and economists discuss both the impacts and the risks of these powerful factors in a year that could see substantial changes.
U.S. and Global Strategy
Policy shifts by the new presidential administration and improving U.S. productivity bode well for U.S. equities. Savita Subramanian and Jared Woodard discuss investment opportunities in 2025, potential impacts of policies on the rest of the world and whether mega cap tech can keep outperforming.
Get to know our strategists
"What we're seeing now is that these tech companies are actually spending on old economy aspects like power, grid infrastructure and this is actually bullish for a lot of the companies outside of mega cap tech."
"Our sense is that we'll have to see a build-out of capacity for reliable baseload power that's cost-effective."
Our strategists in conversation
Policy shifts, increasing productivity, accelerating profits and a broadening of earnings. A bullish discussion about the year ahead.
Productivity is rising, but it’s been limited to the private sector
Private sector productivity has advanced, a bullish development for markets, and we expect that to continue. The new presidential administration is focused on boosting the efficiency of the public sector.
“There are many other levers that companies are using to exert their productivity… This is going to be the theme over the next ten to fifteen years.”
Within construction, data center spend is a bright spot in a weak environment
Data center construction has accelerated, reflective of artificial intelligence and the continued digital shift. Note that these new data facilities will drive increased demand for power. Meanwhile, other construction verticals could improve with policy shifts.
“Our sense is that we'll have to see a build-out of capacity for reliable baseload power that's cost-effective.”
10 Macro Themes for 2025
What are the most important investment themes for 2025, and what do our analysts anticipate for bond yields, commodities and Emerging Markets?
T.J. Thornton
Head of Global Product Marketing
Global and U.S. Economics
U.S. policy changes, from tariffs to taxes to deregulation, will have almost as much impact on the rest of the world as it will on the U.S. And the world will adjust in return. Claudio Irigoyen and Aditya Bhave discuss this crucial interchange between the U.S. and global economies.
Get to know our economists
“In the baseline scenario, we think that fiscal policy will be expansionary through tax cuts.”
“Despite our expectation of relatively large increases in tariffs…we think the inflation impact will amount to a few tenths of a percentage point on consumer price inflation.”
Our economists in conversation
Taxes, tariffs and deregulation. The impact that U.S. policy changes could have on the U.S. and global growth and trade.
GDP growth rates will likely be quite different across the globe
2025 Global GDP should grow at a similar rate to 2024, but there are stark divergences among regions. U.S. growth stands out among developed markets, while China growth is set to slow only modestly.
“In Europe, you don't have much space for fiscal policy. We expect the ECB to cut rates and let the euro weaken and be the shock absorber.”
Productivity growth languished for a decade but is now improving again
Labor productivity improved during the pandemic because of some abnormal factors. It then slowed down temporarily, but productivity is rising again due to drivers we believe are sustainable. Among the positive factors going forward should be less regulation and strong CapEx.
“The other driver of strong productivity growth has been the pickup in CapEx.”
10 Macro Themes for 2025
What are the most important investment themes for 2025, and what do our analysts anticipate for bond yields, commodities and Emerging Markets?
T.J.Thornton
Head of Global Product Marketing
