Prediction markets bet on football

After experiencing exponential growth during last year’s NFL season, customer adoption and virality continued through the spring during the Super Bowl, NCAA basketball and the World Cup. The FIFA World Cup 2026™ proved to be a boon for betting markets broadly and prediction markets specifically. We estimate prediction markets registered nearly $40B in June and recorded nearly $2B on the final game, which is more than double the bets on the Super Bowl.

But the peak of U.S. sports betting traditionally is in the fall, when (American) football takes over television and the national conversation. A number of operators have big plans to improve their offerings, and we expect the land grab for customers and aggressive marketing to echo similar booms that we saw during the peak of daily fantasy (DFS) in 2015/2016 and regulated online sports betting in 2020/2021. Existing prediction markets will seek to cement and grow their leads, while a number of traditional sportsbooks are increasingly marketing their “national” coverage that will allow customers to “trade” in states like California and Texas, heretofore off limits from regulated sports betting.

The regulatory picture for prediction markets, however, remains murky, and full regulatory clarity is unlikely in the near to medium term. A handful of states including Nevada have successfully started to curtail prediction-market offerings while current federal court proceedings play out. Federal court cases seem primed to reach the Supreme Court but still have a number of procedural steps that could delay timing well into 2027 or 2028. The regulatory body in charge of prediction markets, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has supported PM offerings, including sports markets, in recent court filings. So, from the courtroom to the field, competition in and around prediction markets will be fierce, and the stakes for the future of gambling could not be higher.