Wheels up for the experience economy

The experience economy continues to outperform, and the higher-end consumer has been one of the largest contributors to this dynamic. In the BAC aggregated debit and credit card data, total Travel spend (defined as the Airlines, Lodging and Cruise sectors) has consistently grown in the mid-single digits for the better part of 2026 compared to brick-and-mortar retail in the low single digits. Across the travel sector, Airlines and Cruise have grown 7% and 11%, respectively, this year through June, while hotel spend has been up in the low single digits. The higher-end consumer has fueled this growth, which we believe can be seen in the breakdown of revenue growth within the airline cabin. Just in 2Q26, premium revenues, which we use as a proxy for the upper part of the K-shaped economy and includes first class, business class and premium economy seating, grew in the mid- to high teens. 

However, we have begun to see proxies for the lower part of the K-shaped economy begin to recover more meaningfully. In particular, main cabin revenues, which we use as a proxy for the lower part of the K-shaped economy, grew in the low double digits, which is up from flat earlier this year and is beginning to close the growth gap with the high end. This trend is also seen in BAC aggregated debit and credit card data, as lower-income spending on airlines has closed the gap versus higher-income spend, and this gap had persisted through much of 2025. 

That said, whether these wage and spending gains prove durable into 2H26 remains uncertain, as it may be possible that lower-income households reduced tax withholdings to reflect changes associated with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, boosting take-home pay. 

In 2H26, it will be important to watch whether the disparity between high and low income continues to close; we have not seen evidence of the narrowing in many other industries. Overall, BAC aggregated debit and credit card data spend in other leisure categories such as theme parks, marine and campgrounds remains well below the growth seen in the travel sector, and some of these are more exposed to lower-income consumers than travel. 

In fact, growth in many leisure sectors slowed into the middle of 2026, which gave a contrarian indicator to what was seen within the airline cabin. As a result, while there are signs of improvement in lower-income consumer health, it remains unclear whether these gains will prove durable and broaden beyond the experience economy.