Must Read Research

Ship traffic may not be flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, but the implications are cascading like rapids. This week, we examine why the increase in some soft commodities may still underprice rising input costs, how investor sentiment has quickly begun to take on water, the rising tide across Asia's emerging defense ecosystem, and how a lonelier, more anxious, more screen-bound world is propelling demand for the wellness economy.

The Strait of Hormuz shutdown could inflate the cost of driving to dinner, and what’s on the plate.
Nitrogen products like ammonia and urea make up roughly a third of farm production costs, and because natural gas drives 60-80 percent of those costs, any disruption to Gulf flows quickly feeds into crops like corn. One clear sign the market has not fully priced the shock can be seen in grain to urea affordability ratios. Corn to urea and wheat to urea, for example, are near 15-year lows. This is a signal that crop prices may have some catching up to do. Because urea production is so concentrated in the conflict region and in countries reliant on Gulf gas, today’s setup carries a greater systemic risk factor than in 2022. Our Global Agriculture strategists therefore lift our 2026 ag-commodity forecasts. Corn faces the biggest upside risk if the conflict extends into the second half of 2026.

The March Fund Manager Survey reveals a bearish sentiment shift as concerns over Iran and private credit force the “frothy bull” era to capitulate.
Growth optimism tanks to a net 7 percent from 39 percent, and higher inflation expectations jump to a net 45 percent from 9 percent. At the same time, cash levels surge to 4.3 percent, marking the biggest monthly increase since COVID-19. Despite this, investors largely dismiss the risk of recession and continue to overweight equities, especially emerging markets. Geopolitical risks now replace the AI bubble as the top tail risk, and private equity and private credit remain top contenders for a systemic credit event. The bearish sentiment shift is evident in investors moving away from economic boom positioning toward a stagflationary outlook. This favors Staples and Commodities, their highest allocation since April 2022. Among contrarian trades, the survey indicates that lightly held stocks, including the Mag7, consumer goods, and Chinese equities, are positioned to outperform during an end of U.S.–Iran war rally.

Asia has emerged as the new go-to source of land, aerial, and naval defense, owing to strong execution, efficient supply chain management, competitive pricing, and improving interoperability with Western systems.
In his collaborative Asia Defense primer, KJ Hwang notes that South Korea’s arms exports have risen 24 percent since before COVID. This year, the country signed a $35 billion MoU (Memorandum of Understanding) with the United Arab Emirates, covering air defense, fighter jets, and maritime systems. This was a more comprehensive agreement than the land orders placed by Poland in 2022. Asia’s defense spending rose 6 percent in 2025, and we expect future investments to shift from traditional hardware to AI-powered autonomous systems, including anti-drone technology and unmanned vessels. We anticipate many Asian defense budgets to rise to more than 3 percent of GDP (gross domestic product). Japan currently spends closer to 2 percent.

Adults now spend nearly seven hours a day online, with about five times as much time on social media as socializing in person.
This imbalance is starting to take a toll. Lauren-Nicole Kung from the Thematic Research team estimates the social, mental, and physical costs of tech overuse, including loneliness, anxiety, depression, obesity, and myopia, at more than $7 trillion dollars a year, or 6 percent of global GDP. Loneliness is now as widespread as obesity, smoking, and diabetes. The resulting backlash has sparked a massive wellness economy worth about $7 trillion today and projected to reach $10 trillion dollars by 2029. This is larger than both the IT and Pharma sectors. Lauren-Nicole outlines three main investment avenues: social connection, wellness tech, and “me activities,” spanning nutrition, fitness, beauty, travel, and eye care. Ironically, Gen Z sits at the center of the story. It is the most digitally exposed cohort, but also the one most likely to drive the next wave of wellness spending.