Economy

As inflationary pressures remain, our data suggests small businesses have turned to credit cards as a source of financing.

Growing up is expensive. Housing, cars, childcare and more are weighing on the young, but not at the expense of a rainy day fund.

Healthcare employment is below trend but easing small business spending on contract labor suggests less hiring pressure.

Spending softened in March, but continued wage growth, tax refunds, and easing rent inflation should support consumer momentum.

While the Midwest’s GDP has lagged other regions, our data suggests a recent uptick supported by a solid labor market.

Women are driving labor market growth, and we find evidence of a narrowing gender pay gap.

After a surge in employment growth in 2023, our data suggests small business hiring has come off its peak.

Consumer spending momentum is soft but stable, though there are signs lower-income households’ spending growth is slowing.

Since 2021, spending on streaming services has risen 70% and the share of households paying over $100/month has more than doubled.

Do rising childcare costs continue to pose a risk to post-pandemic gains in female employment?

After a boom in goods demand followed by a swing to services, where do retail inventories stand at the start of 2024?

Although small business credit card balances are rising, elevated deposit levels provide support.

Though winter weather softened spending in January, consumers’ sentiment is on the rise and their financial health remains strong.

Exploring the health of today’s consumer through 401(k) and Health Savings Account key metrics.

The West’s high-income and single-household populations are moving out. But why?

What was in, what was out, and what’s in store for 2024.

Live events, such as the Super Bowl, stadium concerts and marathons, boost consumer spending in host cities.

As auto sales strengthen, sales of electric vehicles remain fairly soft; can hybrids bridge the gap?

Small businesses stayed steady despite headwinds in 2023, though high inflation could continue to pressure profits in 2024.

Consumers remain resilient as wage gains support low- and middle-income households, though some plan to pull back in 2024.

As the year comes to a close, we highlight some of the top economic themes and trends of 2023.

Small businesses appear to be ending 2023 on a good note, and we highlight five themes to watch as we head into the new year.

Holiday shopping and income growth supported consumer spending in November, with younger consumers more driven by promotions.

Low- and high-income household spending growth converges, high-income wage growth ticks up, and deposits remain elevated.

The South’s economy has been growing rapidly with consumer spending strong in the third quarter and optimism for next year.

Home purchasing has slowed for younger generations, especially for older Millennials who are facing rising financial burdens.

Utility payments have risen nearly 20% since 2018, weighing especially on lower-income consumers and those living in the South.

The labor market slowdown, while gradual, has broadened. Job moves are also slowing and pay raises for movers are sharply lower.

Why are small business card balances rising?

Boston and Portland are attracting workers with new job prospects while those moving to Seattle are seeing the biggest pay jump.

Childcare payments have risen over 30% since 2019, pressuring families to spend less and draw on savings more across all incomes.

Consumer spending in September remains supported by a resilient labor market, but slowing wage growth and rising childcare payments pose risks. Learn more here.

The gap in spending growth between the older and younger generations may narrow, but is unlikely to completely disappear.

Small business hiring is catching up to overall job growth, although higher interest rates and quality of labor remain concerns.

Moderating wage growth has led to a small uptick in gig work, particularly driven by ridesharing and younger generations.

Though the Northeast is facing population loss, it also sees strong consumer spending and future manufacturing growth.

We answer six frequently asked questions around student loans and the possible impact from the resumption of repayments.

While card balances and student loan payments begin to heat up, consumer spending remains stable and deposit balances elevated.

Consumer travel demand was resilient this summer, but data suggests we’ve moved from “exuberance” to “normalization.”

New business formation is booming and is notably strong in the healthcare sector, which is seeing spending and profit growth.

We revisit spending in city centers and find that while northern cities continue to struggle, spending in southern cities is up.

With median insurance payments rising an average of 5.7% since 2020, how are growing home and auto premiums impacting consumers?

Consumer perceptions of their finances have deteriorated, yet deposit levels remain elevated and spending continues. Why?

Consumer spending had a summer bounce in July, with lower- and middle-income households looking particularly resilient.

Small business payments grew in July led by construction spending as demand for building in the manufacturing sector ramps up.

Which U.S. cities are facing long term housing shortages? Our latest migration flow analysis explains. 

Overall consumer spending remains stable, but higher housing costs are impacting spending by renters more than homeowners.

As small businesses face increasingly tight profit margins, payroll spending growth is beginning to slow.

The pandemic-era rise in online retail spending has continued, posing real challenges for brick-and-mortar stores.

While consumer spending has stabilized, rising housing costs and pending student loan payments are pressuring younger consumers.

Despite tightening credit conditions, loan financing for small businesses has not shown a meaningful decline.

Our near real-time estimates of migration flows suggest a continuation of pandemic-era moving trends.

We highlight some areas of weakness beneath the surface of a buoyant labor market.

While the overall labor market remains buoyant, higher-income households are seeing some pockets of weakness.

Our analysis suggests the western U.S. is not in recession, with consumer spending strengthening this year relative to the broader U.S.

Though small business payments levels remain strong, small businesses are pulling back on spending and slowing hiring.

Residual pent-up demand for cruises and international trips is helping drive ongoing travel spending.

While this cohort’s spending lagged the average over the pandemic, there are signs of a catch-up at the start of 2023.

While spending was no slam dunk due to weaker wage growth and lower tax refunds, consumers continue to have financial buffers.